The Richmond Factor

Danny Richmond (Photo by Kyle Mace)

After the meltdown formerly known as the Sunday game against Norfolk, my girlfriend (in a semi-kidding sort of way) said “We would have won if they’d have played Danny Richmond.” She kind of has a thing for him and has declared him to be her favorite. Don’t get me wrong. She’s no puck bunny. She has been studying the game in depth and is a big help when I am tweeting a game. She’s a true hockey lover. As we were on our way home, I started thinking about it more. Could there be something to this? Richmond has seen limited action this year. Including this past weekend, he has seen action in just 12 games. The limited playing time is at least in part due to the AHL’s “veteran rule”.

The rule as described by the AHL:

What is the AHL’s development rule?

In the AHL, player development is a top priority. The American Hockey League and the Professional Hockey Players’ Association have the following development rule in place for the 2011-12 season:

Of the 18 skaters (not counting two goaltenders) that teams may dress for a regular-season game, at least 13 must be qualified as “development players.” Of those 13, 12 must have played in 260 or fewer professional games (including AHL, NHL, IHL and European elite leagues), and one must have played in 320 or fewer professional games. All calculations for development status are based on regular-season totals as of the start of the season.

The Bears have played 29 games resulting in a record thus far of 16-8-3-2. For those of you new to the standings, that would be 16 wins, 8 losses, 3 overtime losses and 2 shootout losses.

Now that we have a baseline, let’s take a look at the twelve games that Richmond has played. If you want to look at it in terms of a pure win/loss, they are 7-5 which isn’t a stellar case for the “Richmond Factor.” So let’s break it down the same way the AHL does. The Bears record when Richmond plays is 7-2-2-1. Out of twelve games, the Bears have only lost 2 games in regulation when Richmond is in the lineup. To put it another way, there are only two games in which Danny has played where the Bears didn’t earn any points in the standings.

Richmond has been a healthy scratch while there are games like Sunday night where the defense just fell apart. The defense continues to be an issue with this team. Out of the 13 games that the Bears have lost, they have scored three or more goals six times. It used to be true that when you scored three or more goals in a game there was a good chance you were winning that one.  Out of 29 games played, there have been a whopping 17 that the Bears have given up three or more goals. They ended up losing 12 of those.

Richmond doesn’t have the best stat sheet, but maybe it’s the ‘intangibles’ that he brings. He’s a veteran, and has plenty of game experience to back that up. His +1 rating isn’t great by any means, but that would still put him in a tie for fourth among defensemen. Maybe there’s something to the “Richmond Factor” or maybe not. I thought it would be fun to look at especially with a struggling defense. The last two Calder Cup winning Bears teams had strong leadership on the blue line. Of course there’s also the old cliché that offense wins games, but defense wins championships. The Bears have 17 standing points in 12 games when Richmond plays (averaging 1.42 standings points earned per game). They have a .708 winning percentage versus an overall .638. Without Richmond in the lineup, that winning percentage drops to .625 (and average standings points per game drops to 1.25).

So maybe you buy into the fact that Richmond should be in the lineup. Who do you scratch? It would have to be another ‘veteran’ which you aren’t going to find on the defense. Richmond is the only one. You are going to have to sit a veteran forward. Certainly not either of the top two scorers in the league in Keith Aucoin or Chris Bourque. Probably not Jacob Micflikier who is 5th in the league in scoring. Who does that leave us with? Boyd Kane, DJ King, Graham Mink, Ryan Potulny and Kyle Greentree. Greentree is still injured, but should be back soon (which presents even more problems for veterans). King is also still injured, so that leaves us with Potulny, Kane and Mink. One (Kane) wears a C on his chest and another (Mink) wears an A for home games. Mink is also tops in the league for power play goals. Potulny was hurt for part of the season, but in December he currently stands with 14 points (6G-8A-14Pts) in 9 games plays this month. As you can see, not a lot of room for Richmond to crack the lineup, but when he’s in there the Bears have a better record.

In a game like this past Sunday against Norfolk, Richmond may have been the difference. It was the only game that he didn’t play this season against Norfolk. Before Sunday, they Bears were 3-0-1-0 against the Admirals. It was also one of five games this season that the Bears have lost by 2 or more goals. Richmond was only in for one of those five.

Unfortunately, no matter what the stats say, there is a limit to how many veterans that can play each game. Richmond seems to be the odd man out, but he could be part of the solution to the struggling defensive corps.